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Hard disk drive (HDD) market

The solid-state drive revolution has transformed the landscape of computer storage, causing a profound shift in the hard disk drive (HDD) market. As consumers and businesses increasingly opt for the speed and reliability of solid-state drives, traditional HDDs face new challenges and opportunities. This technological evolution impacts various sectors of the storage industry, with the C2Q (capacity-constrained, quality-focused) HDD market experiencing significant changes.

To understand these developments, this article examines the rise of solid-state drives and their influence on the HDD market. It explores the current state of the C2Q HDD market, highlighting key trends and market dynamics. The piece also delves into technological advancements in HDDs, shedding light on how manufacturers adapt to compete with solid-state drives. Finally, it offers insights into the future outlook for HDDs in an era dominated by solid-state technology, providing a comprehensive view of this rapidly evolving sector.

The Rise of SSDs and Their Impact on the HDD Market

The storage industry has witnessed a significant shift with the introduction of solid-state drives (SSDs). Since their commercial debut in 1991 by SanDisk, SSDs have steadily gained ground against traditional hard disk drives (HDDs). This technological evolution has reshaped the storage landscape, prompting consumers and businesses to reassess their storage options.

SSD vs HDD: A Performance Comparison

SSDs offer substantial performance advantages over HDDs. They can improve a computer's startup time by up to 68% and provide data access speeds up to 20 times faster than traditional hard drives. When moving large files, HDDs typically copy at 30 to 150 MB per second, while standard SATA SSDs achieve speeds of 500 MB/s. Newer NVMe SSDs push the boundaries even further, reaching astounding speeds of 3,000 to 3,500 MB/s.

Growing SSD Adoption Rates

The adoption of SSDs has been steadily increasing. In Q1 2021, SSD shipments nearly reached 100 million units, compared to 64.17 million HDD shipments from the top three manufacturers. This shift is evident in the consumer market, with even budget laptops now featuring SSDs. For instance, Dell offers Inspiron laptops with NVMe SSDs starting at just USD 294.00.

Price Trends of SSDs and HDDs

While SSDs initially came with a hefty price tag, the cost gap between SSDs and HDDs has narrowed significantly over time. In 1991, SSDs were almost 18 times more expensive per GB than HDDs. However, by 2020, the average price per gigabyte of SSDs had plummeted from USD 3.76 in 2012 to USD 0.10. Despite this dramatic decrease, HDDs still maintain a price advantage, with the cheapest options costing around USD 0.01 per GB compared to USD 0.05 per GB for SSDs.

C2Q HDD Market Analysis

Current HDD Shipment Statistics

The C2Q 2024 witnessed a slight upturn in the hard disk drive (HDD) market, with total unit shipments increasing by approximately 1% compared to the previous quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter of growth in HDD demand. More significantly, capacity shipments saw a substantial rise of 10.6% from the prior quarter, indicating a shift towards higher-capacity drives. This trend aligns with the increasing demand for mass storage solutions, particularly in the near-line segment.

Revenue Trends in the HDD Sector

The HDD sector experienced a notable revenue boost in C2Q 2024, with a 14.6% increase from the previous quarter, reaching USD 4.51 billion. This growth can be attributed to the rising average sales price (ASP) of HDDs, which saw a 10.5% increase from C1Q 2024 to C2Q 2024. In fact, current ASPs have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s, nearly matching the ASP recorded in 1998. This upward trend in pricing reflects the industry's focus on high-capacity enterprise HDDs and the gradual displacement of legacy applications by solid-state drives (SSDs).

Market Share Distribution

The market share distribution among HDD manufacturers has shown some fluctuation. While specific figures for all companies are not provided, Toshiba's market share in C2Q 2024 was approximately 19%, down from 22% in the previous quarter. Seagate reported that 79% of their products were sold directly to OEMs, an increase from 75% in the prior quarter. Western Digital noted that cloud storage accounted for about 50% of their revenue in this quarter, up from 45% in the previous period. These shifts indicate ongoing changes in the competitive landscape and customer preferences within the HDD market.

Technological Advancements in HDDs

Increased Storage Capacities

Hard disk drive manufacturers continue to push the boundaries of storage capacity. Seagate has crossed the 30TB milestone with its Mozaic 3+ HDD platform, which utilizes heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology. These drives incorporate superlattice platinum-alloy media, enabling smaller magnetic grains and denser recording. Seagate's roadmap aims to achieve 40+TB drives by 2026 and 50+TB by 2028.

Western Digital has made significant strides as well, shipping samples of its 28TB Ultrastar DC HC680, a 10-disk drive using shingled magnetic recording (SMR). The company has developed "UltraSMR," which enhances standard SMR with large block encoding and error detection algorithms to prevent noise when tracks are written closer together.

Toshiba has demonstrated a 32TB HAMR drive and a 31TB drive using microwave-assisted magnetic recording (MAMR). The company plans to produce hard drives exceeding 40TB by 2026.

Energy-Assisted Recording Technologies

Energy-assisted magnetic recording (EAMR) technologies are driving areal density gains in HDDs. These include HAMR and MAMR, which apply additional energy to modify media attributes, making it easier to write with conventional field strength.

HAMR uses heat to temporarily reduce media anisotropy, allowing for the use of higher-anisotropy media and smaller bits. MAMR, on the other hand, uses a spin torque oscillator attached to the recording head to enable writing on more stable media.

Western Digital has implemented energy-assisted PMR (ePMR) in its leading HDD products, resulting from years of research in energy-assisted methodologies.

Multi-Actuator Drives

To address the challenge of maintaining performance as capacities increase, manufacturers have introduced multi-actuator technology. Seagate's MACH.2 Multi Actuator technology equips hard drives with dual actuators, each controlling half of the drive's arms. This innovation can double the data performance of future-generation hard drives in hyperscale data centers.

Multi-actuator HDDs enable parallelism within a single drive, allowing the host computer to treat it as two separate drives. This technology is particularly beneficial for data-intensive applications in hyperscale environments, where both high capacity and strong performance are required.

Future Outlook for HDDs in the SSD Era

Emerging Use Cases for HDDs

Hard disk drives (HDDs) continue to play a crucial role in data storage, particularly in emerging technologies. In advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), HDDs excel due to their superior shock and vibration specifications. These systems can generate up to 5PB of data annually, with fill rates as high as 19TB/hour. Similarly, robotic systems, drones, and satellite image analysis create real-time data, requiring substantial storage capacity. For instance, John Deere's See and Spray feature captures 20 images per second per crop, necessitating 6TB of storage per day for each sprayer.

Predictions for HDD Market Growth

The HDD market is poised for significant growth. IDC forecasts that by 2027, the installed HDD capacity in cloud and non-cloud data centers could reach 10ZB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%. Seagate's analysis of IDC and TRENDFOCUS data predicts an almost 250% increase in HDD exabyte shipments by 2028. This growth trajectory is expected to continue well into the next decade, maintaining HDDs' dominance in terms of installed capacity.

Coexistence of SSDs and HDDs

While solid-state drives (SSDs) have gained traction, HDDs remain indispensable in data centers. In 2024, HDD exabyte production is projected to be almost three times that of SSDs, and six times higher in enterprise and data center markets. IDC's 2023 StorageSphere report indicates that the ratio of existing HDD to SSD installed capacity in data centers is 7 to 1, a trend expected to persist. This coexistence is driven by the complementary nature of HDDs and SSDs, each excelling in specific tasks and workloads within data center environments.

Conclusion

The solid-state drive revolution has brought about significant changes in the computer storage industry, reshaping the landscape for hard disk drives. As SSDs continue to gain popularity due to their superior performance and declining prices, HDDs have adapted by focusing on high-capacity solutions for enterprise and data center applications. This shift has led to technological advancements in HDDs, including increased storage capacities, energy-assisted recording technologies, and multi-actuator drives, allowing them to maintain their relevance in specific market segments.

Looking ahead, HDDs are poised to play a crucial role in emerging technologies such as advanced driver-assistance systems and robotic systems, where their capacity and durability are highly valued. The coexistence of SSDs and HDDs is expected to continue, with each technology excelling in specific tasks and workloads. As the demand for data storage continues to grow, particularly in cloud and data center environments, the HDD market is projected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, ensuring its ongoing importance in the storage ecosystem.